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ONE OUT OF TWO: Caserio put together great defense, but QB Stroud has regressed

By Tom King - Staff Writer | Jan 17, 2026

It’s just like the good ol’ days for the New England Patriots. Not only are they winning like they used to, but the Houston Texans are coming to town.

It’s the third postseason matchup between the two teams, but this may be Houston’s best team. Certainly its best defense.

These aren’t those same pushover Texans. Heck, their general manager, Nick Caserio, was part of the Patriots braintrust that helped derail the Texans on two blowout wins.

It took awhile, but Caserio finally got things right in Houston. After two head coach one and dones, he settled on former Texans player DeMeco Ryans as coach. Ryans has guided the team to the playoffs in all three of his seasons. Not easy.

A lot has changed in Foxborough since Caserio was here, right? But he’s one of those who left Bill Belichick’s braintrust domain and went on to success, although it took awhile. This would be a crowning achievement if the Texans win this game at Gillette and make it to their first AFC Championship Game. It could happen, if you’ve been watching what this ferocious defense he put together has done.

Thus, let’s make our weekly picks after a not-too-Wild 3-3 previous weekend:

PATRIOTS 17, TEXANS 10

Well, when in doubt, we do this: We go with the best quarterback. Houston’s C.J. Stroud just doesn’t seem like he fits or is comfortable with whatever offense the Texans are trying to run. Why that is is hard to fathom, because two years ago Stroud took the Texans from a doormat to the playoffs. But this season and last Monday night he’s almost more of a hindrance Plus he won’t have Nico Collins, officially out. The Patriots defense will cause him more angst than the Steelers and turnovers will be the key. Drake Maye is the better QB by far, and if he’s able to not turn the ball over – not easy vs. this defense – New England will survive.

Now, who will they play next?….

BILLS 27, BRONCOS 23

Toughest game to pick of them all. Why? Because Denver is so tough to beat at Mile High, because Josh Allen is banged up, because the Bills can’t stop the run, and because Denver just seems to be able to pull wins out of the fire of losses.

But when in doubt, we go with the same formula as above: the better quarterback. Josh Allen went down to Jacksonville and beat a hot Jaguars team and Trevor Lawrence. He’s a better QB than Bo Nix, all due respect to Denver’s season.

SEAHAWKS 30, NINERS 20

We would have gone with San Francisco in this one except for the fact the Niners lost George Kittle, arguably their best overall player, to a torn Achilles last Sunday. Yes, it took something like that for Sam Darnold to win a playoff game. He won’t get sacked nine times like he did a year ago by the Rams, but he does have to overcome a sore oblique. He won’t be “seeing ghosts out there” either. It’s a great matchup, but the Seahawks aside from Darnold are healthier and happier. They’ll host the NFC championship game, which is great timing since next week it’s the later game.

RAMS 33, BEARS 23

The Rams may get their chance to sack Sam Darnold after all.We know everyone feels that the Bears are a team of destiny, with QB Caleb Williams’ backyard game and Bruce Johnson’s annoying enthusiasm. But here’s a news flash: They’re not playing the Packers this weekend.

LAST WEEK: 3-3

PLAYOFFS: 3-3

FINAL REGULAR SEASON: 83-43

Tom King may be reached at tking@nashuatelegraph.com. Also, follow King on X (@Telegraph_TomK).