Enrollment vs. cost-per-pupil numbers still don’t add up
In March 2007, I reported on the increase in per-pupil school costs during a period of flat enrollments. Between 2000 and 2005, area enrollments were essentially constant while school costs went up 24 percent.
What has happened since then? Sorry you asked. It is horrible.
Using data provided by the New Hampshire Department of Education, I found that from school year 2001-02 to 2019-10 (the latest data available), area enrollments are down 6.7 percent and costs per pupil are up an astounding 74.9 percent.
In an ideal world, cost per pupil should remain relatively constant when adjusted for inflation. There can be modest lumps as classes are added or deleted, but overall cost per student should not change.
Here is a town-by-town breakdown of changes in enrollment and per-pupil cost between 2001-02 and 2009-10. The first number represents the change in enrollment, the second per-pupil cost:
Amherst: -11.9% 79.0%
Brookline: 9.0% 78.8%
Derry: -19.0% 108.8%
Hollis: -20.7% 99.4%
Hollis-Brookline: 23.0% 43.5%
Hudson: 1.6% 42.7%
Londonderry: -9.7% 68.7%
Lyndeborough: -8.7% 116.6%
Merrimack: -8.9% 72.9%
Milford: 8.4% 47.2%
Nashua: -7.7% 63.6%
Salem: -5.4% 59.9%
Souhegan: -9.3% 88.8%
Wilton: -15.2% 104.1%
Wilton-Lyndeborough: 1.1% 61.0%
Area averages: -6.7% 74.9%
Some of these numbers jump out at you. Derry and Hollis lost one out of five students, but their cost per student doubled. Souhegan High School lost one in 10 students, while its cost per pupil went up 88.8 percent. These school boards need to look at this. Taxpayers need to demand cost reductions.
Lyndeborough had a large increase, but it is a very small school (95 students in the 2009-10 school year) and so gets some slack.
There is a minimum infrastructure required to run a school that cannot be reduced regardless of enrollment. Perhaps Lyndeborough needs to look for a nearby partner to take its elementary school students.
Every school district had a per-pupil cost increase that far exceeded its enrollment changes, even those with increasing enrollments such as Hudson. Over this period, Hudson’s enrollment increased 1.6 percent, but its cost per pupil went up 42.7 percent.
Is this just the result of general price increases? Is inflation at work here? The Bureau of Labor Statistics, keepers of the Consumer Price Index, reports that inflation from 2001 to 2010 was 21 percent.
In other words, any good or service cost that went up by 21 percent in that time period would be holding even with the rate of inflation. At 74.9 percent per- pupil expenditure increase, our schools are way ahead of inflation.
Maybe it is unfair to take such a wide view. Things have happened during the 2001-10 time period that have had a recent effect. For instance, Nashua built a new high school, revamped the old one, got rid of a poor superintendent and hired a good one during that period. Maybe we should look at how things have been recently.
OK, fair enough. Let’s look at the last four years.
Amherst: -9.2% 24.1%
Brookline: 7.0% 22.1%
Derry: -5.7% 23.5%
Hollis: -19.8% 44.9%
Hollis-Brookline: 2.9% 11.8%
Hudson: -0.8% 22.8%
Londonderry: -7.0% 21.2%
Lyndeborough: 17.3% 13.9%
Merrimack: -7.7% 21.6%
Milford: 6.7% 14.9%
Nashua: -4.6% 24.3%
Salem: -9.6% 35.2%
Souhegan: -14.8% 43.4%
Wilton: -12.4% 65.6%
Wilton-Lyndeborough: -9.6% 27.7%
Area averages: -5.3% 27.4%
Again, Hollis, Salem and Souhegan lead the parade, continuing to lose students but increasing per-pupil cost by nearly half to one-third over this four-year period. The folks in Wilton might also want to see what is going on.
Inflation over these four years? Ten percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The area average of 27.4 percent of cost-per-pupil growth during a 5.3 percent decline in enrollment is not sustainable, especially during the tough economic times of the past three years.
Schools are supported by property taxes, and those on a fixed income, which used to be just seniors but lately also includes those bringing in a paycheck, cannot afford this burden. It must stop.
Competition is the answer. Anytime a monopoly exists, especially a government monopoly, efficiencies wither. We need a concerted effort to bring competition to our education market.
Nashua Superintendent of Schools Mark Conrad has noticed and is pushing for a charter school in the city. Perhaps we need a regional charter high school to compete with Derry, Hollis, Salem and Souhegan.
In the meantime, taxpayers need to pressure school boards to not hold cost increases to a few cents on the dollar, but to bring them down by tens of cents on the dollar.
That will mean difficult staff reductions, especially in administration, but fewer students should mean fewer jobs.
John Bachman is an Amherst businessman and freelance columnist. His column appears on the first Sunday of the month. E-mail him at john@anatekcorp.com.