Paul Collins

Hopefully, we are now standing on the crest of high level talks among the principals involved in bringing a potential end, or at least a cease-fire agreement, in Russia’s bloody invasion of Ukraine. As a reality check, despite the heroic and courageous fighting on the part of the vastly outnumbered and outgunned Ukrainian forces, endless columns of Russian tanks backed by a ferocious, merciless and unrelenting aerial and long-range artillery assault targeting civilians continue to roll across Ukraine. Innocent people are being slaughtered in Russian President Putin’s war of choice.

Russia’s unprovoked invasion of neighboring Ukraine is, indeed, a horrific and heartbreaking event playing out on the world stage. It is a war that is reverberating across the globe in general, and in the Taiwan Strait in particular. When looking at the events that have, and are continuing to unfold in Ukraine, there is a distinct, and very real potential for the acts of the Russian military incursion in Ukraine to provide Chinese President Xi Jinping a blueprint and operating plan for China to invade Taiwan across the narrow 100 mile Taiwan Strait. As seen through my eyes, Taiwan is not only a very real and very frightening possibility, in many ways it is indeed a mirror image. With tensions rising, in the minds of many Taiwanese people there surely must be the gnawing and terrifying question of Ukraine today – Taiwan tomorrow?”

Taiwan is quite literally an island of Democracy that has practiced independent governing from mainland China since 1949. Across the decades, Taiwan has also become a showcase for capitalism and economic success in the global marketplace. That being said, much of the success of Taiwan’s economy is heavily reliant on trade with China; a proven global economic powerhouse. Today, Taiwan is the world’s top contract manufacturer of semiconductor chips, and this Taiwanese success story continues to bloom and grow in the face of the growing tension that exists with the People’s Republic of China across the narrow 100 mile-wide strait. The fact that the United States is so heavily dependent on a host of booming Taiwanese chip companies provides Washington with a powerful incentive to stand by this island success story and defend it from a potential attack by China. Beijing has always viewed Taiwan as a renegade province that is part of China. That view has never wavered. The steadily deteriorating cross-strait relations, the growing military might of the PRC, coupled with its assertive, aggressive and intimidating posture towards Taiwan is, in the final analysis, a powder keg with a very short fuse.

Just as Russia has always considered Ukraine a rebellious child of sorts that was once, and should always remain, part of the Motherland, so is the case with China and Taiwan. What is at the heart of China’s hostile attitude against Taiwan is, in a word, reunification. President Xi Jinping has stated publicly on numerous occasions, “Reunification with Taiwan must be fulfilled.” Again, while the PRC views Taiwan as a break-away province, looking through the reality lens, Taiwan sees itself as an independent nation that has its own constitution and democratically-elected leaders.

The question that begs to be asked is one of, does Taiwan have the military capability to defend itself against a massive Chinese military force that dwarfs that of Taiwan? The answer to that question is a no-brainer, no it doesn’t. For China’s powerful naval, air, and missile capabilities could surely crush Taiwan like an empty beer can. This sobering reality is surely a sad and scary prospect for Taiwan to have to come to grips with. As I say, Taiwan is not only a raging business success in the highly competitive global marketplace, it is also a showcase for Democracy, and what people can do when they have the freedom, incentive, and wherewithal to pursue their own dreams. Like the Ukraine situation, Taiwan is also facing a potential and titanic struggle that would have Democracy going up against Autocracy.

As Washington and NATO continue their focus on Europe, and are embroiled in Russia’s bloody invasion of Ukraine, the United States and its allies simply cannot afford to turn a blind eye and deaf ear to the simmering cauldron of China and Taiwan. A half a world away, Beijing appears to be un-phased by the world’s collective outrage and condemnation of Putin as the Russian offensive slows down and is even pushed back by the tenacity of the undaunted Ukrainian defenders. A half a world away a tiny island that is beacon of Democracy and Capitalism could, like Ukraine with Russia, be standing in the crosshairs of a powerful neighbor who, by all accounts, and by their own stated admission, won’t ever be happy or satisfied until Taiwan is swallowed up and returned completely to the PRC. The world should not let that happen.

Paul Collins is a freelance writer from Southborough, Massachusetts.