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Why N.H.?

By Staff | Aug 22, 2019

Why President Donald Trump scheduled a re-election campaign rally for New Hampshire baffles us.

Even if Trump somehow managed to win New Hampshire in next year’s Electoral College – something NO Republican presidential candidate, not even the popular late John McCain, has done since 2000 – Trump would only add four electoral votes to his total.

Trump should be spending far more time and effort on securing the battleground states he won by narrow percentages in 2016:

• Texas (38 electoral votes)

• Florida (29 electoral votes)

• Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes)

• Ohio (18 electoral votes)

• Michigan (16 electoral votes)

• Georgia (16 electoral votes)

• North Carolina (15 electoral votes)

• Arizona (11 electoral votes)

• Wisconsin (10 electoral votes).

Trump losses in any two of those states next year would virtually assure the Democratic Party nominee a win in the general election.

Also, Trump is not very popular in the Granite State, even with some Republicans. This is particularly true with the New Hampshire Republican establishment, which includes one of our competing media members.

In a Gravis Marketing poll of 505 New Hampshire voters released last week, 48% said they “strongly disapprove” of Trump. By comparison, in the same poll, Republican Gov. Chris Sununu saw only 15% of respondents answer that they “strongly disapprove” of him.

Nevertheless, Trump drew a large and spirited crowd of supporters to Manchester’s Southern New Hampshire University Arena on Thursday.

“Democrats want open borders. They don’t mind crime. We do mind crime,” Trump asserted during the rally.

Trump also took several shots at his potential 2020 Democratic opponents, particularly Joe Biden of Delaware, Elizabeth “Pocahontas” Warren of Massachusetts and Kamala Harris of California.

“Is there anything better than a Trump rally? What about a ‘Sleepy’ Joe Biden rally?” Trump added.

Trump narrowly lost the Granite State to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by a count of 46.8% to 46.5%, or fewer than 3,000 votes. In that election, Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson got more than 30,000 votes in New Hampshire, so the race was relatively close.

Still, shifting demographics that show the state’s population becoming more diverse and educated, combined with Trump’s inability to impress prominent New Hampshire Republicans, make it seem very unlikely he could win here in 2020. If he wanted to win re-election, the president should get to the Midwest and the South as soon as possible.