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Harris and Warren move up in polls; Biden, Sanders fall

NASHUA – Polls on Friday showed that former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead in the race for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination has slipped by more than 12 points since May, although he still leads his closest competitor by double digits.

As 25 Democratic candidates clamor for attention by attending parades, house parties and other gatherings, New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation presidential primary is about seven months from now. For the first time since the race began to take shape early this year, there is a bit of a shake-up in national public opinion polls.

Chicago-based Real Clear Politics takes data from multiple polls to tabulate an average. The five national polls used in the RCP average Friday included polls taken by CNN, The Economist/YouGov, ABC News/Washington Post, The Hill and Quinnipiac University.

National Polls

Friday, the national polls showed Biden with 26% support. This reflects a drop of 12.3% since his May 20 reading of 38.3%.

Gaining the most ground since May 20 is Kamala Harris of California. Her Friday polling average was 15.2%, which is more than double the 7.3% she recorded May 20.

In third place Friday was Bernie Sanders of Vermont with 14%. This is a decline of 4.8% since May 20.

Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts continues gaining support, as she recorded 13.8% in the Friday polling average. This is an increase of 5.3% since May 20.

South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg is in fifth place at 5.2%. This is a slight decline of 1.8% since May 20.

Former Texas congressman Beto O’Rourke remains in sixth place at 2.4%. On May 20, his support was 3.8%, so it has declined.

The only other Democrat to reach at least 2% in the national polling average is Cory Booker of New Jersey. He posted 2.2% on Friday, down from 2.5% on May 20.

Analysis

While support for Biden and Sanders has fallen since May, both Harris and Warren have gained ground. Harris, in particular, saw a significant boost after the June 27 NBC debate in Miami.

“Round One of the Democratic debates puts Senator Kamala Harris and former Vice President Joe Biden on two different trajectories, as support for Harris surges, but continues to slip for Biden,” Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Mary Snow said. “Biden’s once commanding lead has evaporated.”

Individually, the Quinnipiac poll shows Biden at 22% and Harris at 20%. However, the other four polls used by RCP show larger leads for Biden.

Warren, meanwhile, has increased her standing since May, seeing her support go from 8.5% to 13.8% in the national polls.

“When it comes to policy ideas, Senator Elizabeth Warren scores higher than any of the Democratic presidential contenders,” Snow added.

The Rest of The Field

No other Democrat reaches 2% in the national polling average. Those registering at least 1% are Julian Castro of Texas, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii.

Democrats still hoping to break 1% include: Andrew Yang of New York, Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, Tim Ryan of Ohio, Michael Bennet of Colorado, John Hickenlooper of Colorado, Jay Inslee of Washington, Steve Bullock of Montana, John Delaney of Maryland, Wayne Messam of Florida, Seth Moulton of Massachusetts, Eric Swalwell of California, Marianne Williamson of California, Bill de Blasio of New York, Joe Sestak of Pennsylvania and Mike Gravel of Alaska.