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November’s precipitation events help explain it

By Staff | Dec 13, 2010

November brought us quite a lot of the weather we would expect to see for the final month of fall and no unusual conditions. Rainfall was right at normal helping to end any threat of a developing drought after the period of dry weather during midyear.

The slate gray skies of November were in play on about half of the days last month. Many of the remaining days featuring fractured sunshine and clouds. After all, November is almost as cloudy as April and May, which are the cloudiest months of the year, so we should expect the clouds.

If there was one type of event we didn’t see in November, it was one or two good old coastal storms. November is normally when we start to see the battle of warm and cold get into full swing, resulting in rapidly developing storms along the strengthening jet stream.

Let’s briefly review a couple of the causes of storm development and intensification. As the continent cools at a steady pace, the ocean cools at a more leisurely rate, resulting in a much stronger temperature difference near our coastline than during summer. For this reason, developing storms from late fall through early spring can “explode” into gales quickly as they swirl the ocean’s warmth and moisture inland across the land’s colder, drier air.

Many early season storms see a quick change to rain closer to the milder ocean waters with snow staying well inland. As winter progresses and the ocean cools, the snowier scenarios start to arrive at the coast as well. Of course, the all-important track of a given storm is the most important determinant of rain or snow.

As everyone may have heard numerous times, a storm tracking to the west of one’s location typically results in a change to rain as milder ocean air arrives from the southeast or south while a track to the east keeps cold air locked in. Sometimes, warmer air can still move in at higher levels to the west of a storm track and change snow to sleet or freezing rain.

During November, we saw nearly no major storms for the region but rainfall was still near normal. How can that happen? you may wonder. Well, there were still several precipitation events that dropped decent amounts on us despite never getting very strong.

Moisture inflow from the south was still adequate enough to produce good rains, proving that major storms are not always needed to get lots of water.

Rain totals through the lower Merrimack Valley last month were consistently around 4 inches. Consistent amounts are generally seen in the winter half of the year as a result of most of the precipitation falling from large-scale weather systems rather than from the more localized showers and thundershowers of summer.

Nashua’s rainfall total for November of 4.05 inches was 0.12 inches below normal and was a tie for the 70th driest November since 1884. The calendar year total now stands at 41.09 inches, right where we should be.

Snow did fly a few times around the area, but in most cases, you had to look quick or you missed it. Early on the morning of Nov. 19, there was a coating of snow on the ground and cars through parts of Hudson, but only flurries were noted in most areas.

The first flakes of the season were noted during the early morning hours of Nov. 8 before a light rain took over. Flurries also fell early on the morning of Nov. 24, the day before Thanksgiving. Freezing rain gave trees and power lines a coating of ice early on the morning of the day after Thanksgiving, but it was not enough to produce any serious problems.

Measurable snowfall occurs during November about 53 percent of the years, so you can see the inconsistency from year to year. There is usually little to nothing or several inches, which, when all the numbers are crunched, gives us the normal total of 3.3 inches.

Temperatures were pretty much on the mark last month with only two brief warm spikes around mid-month. Most days were within a few degrees of normal. The monthly average of 40.4 degrees was 1.0 degrees above normal and tied for the 37th mildest November since 1885.

Fall is officially in the books as far as weather and climate records are concerned. Nashua’s average temperature of 51.8 degrees was 2.1 degrees above normal and tied as the 14th mildest. The mildest fall on record came in 1931 with an average temperature of 54.2 degrees.

Rainfall totaled 11.35 inches for the fall, a deficit of 0.38 inches and the 74th driest of record.

With winter now here, everyone is asking what the weather will bring. The recent spell of severe winter weather through central and northwest Europe has raised the possibility we might see another winter like last year.

With a strong La Nina in place and now peaking out, we expect to see Canada covered with colder than normal temperatures for a good part of the winter. Last winter, there was a weakening El Nino in place, the opposite of the current event.

If you recall, Canada saw mild conditions for much of last winter with all of the cold weather through the southeast and central United States. This time around the cold air should be where one would expect it, with the question being, how much gets dispersed southward.

Many La Nina winters have brought changeable weather to New England with periods of cold and snow followed by spring-like weather than back to the cold. Many of these winters saw the averages come out quite close to normal, but with quite a few spikes of mild and cold weather.

December generally sees cold weather take hold and snow becomes much more of a familiar scene on average, but average nearly never occurs. Nashua sees a white Christmas 59 percent of the time based on records dating back to the 1880s.

On a brighter note, we begin to gain light during the afternoon in a little more than a week and the entire day starts to grow longer in the last third of December. However, there is the old Yankee saying, “As the days lengthen, the cold strengthens.”

Weather & Climate appears at the beginning of each month, depending on when final weather data are available. Doug Webster of Hudson is senior meteorologist at Telvent DTN in Woburn, Mass.