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Your campaign money might be better spent in housing

By Staff | Aug 28, 2011

Congratulations to Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz for calling upon his CEO colleagues to boycott campaign contributions until our elected officials start acting like leaders rather than political weasels.

I added that last part. Finally, someone who gets it. Not that I expect a groundswell of support, but it was a welcome gesture.

Forget about our myriad problems. Washington is the problem. Until we address that issue, nothing will improve appreciably. And the only way to get a politician to listen is to hit him or her where it hurts: in the wallet.

On the housing front, there was some positive news as it relates to the local market. Real-estate firm Zillow analyzed the relationship between incomes and home values and found that price-to-income levels have moved in sync for decades. As incomes increased, so did home prices.

Many economists consider this ratio a good gauge for determining whether housing is under- or overvalued.

For example, if incomes increase while home prices remain stable in a particular market, homes in that market would be considered undervalued.

Not that I have much faith in economists, but in this case, I think the blind squirrel theory applies. It stands to reason that if incomes increase, people can afford to buy more expensive homes. This would have the effect of driving prices up to coincide with the increase in income.

Zillow studied the correlation between home prices and annual incomes before home prices got artificially juiced and validated the link between the two variables. It then looked at the present income-to-price ratio in the nearly 130 housing markets across the country and found that one-third of them would be considered undervalued by historical standards.

The good news is that Manchester was third on the list of most undervalued, behind Detroit and Las Vegas. The best news is that unlike Detroit, which suffers from severe economic hardship, and Las Vegas, which continues to be beaten down by a plethora of foreclosures, the Manchester area is relatively healthy.

That isn’t to say we should expect an immediate turnaround in home prices, but the data suggests we should rebound sooner than other geographies.

Steve Jobs momentarily rocked the financial world by resigning from Apple. Given Jobs’ health issues, the announcement wasn’t a major surprise. Apple has been preparing for a day without Jobs, as evidenced by the muted market reaction.

The CNBC talking heads compared Jobs to Thomas Edison. That might be a stretch, but there’s no doubt Jobs is a product genius.

Everyone is replaceable – sort of. And when it comes to visionaries and those who possess acute creative abilities, the “sort of” element is magnified.

Michael Jordan is a good analogy. Or, perhaps writing in New England, I should use Bill Russell or Larry Bird. When these great players retired, they were replaced with other capable basketball players, but it wasn’t the same. Others may excel, but Jordan, Russell and Bird played at a different level. In other words, Apple may have some competent people, but they aren’t Steve Jobs.

The loss of Jobs won’t be felt immediately. There are years of products in the pipeline, and Jobs will continue to play a reduced role. So, don’t expect Apple to lose its shine anytime soon, but eventually, blemishes are likely to emerge.

Warren Buffet made news with a substantial investment in Bank of America. The announcement had such an impact that it overshadowed the Jobs resignation. BofA’s stock immediately popped 25 percent, helping the entire financial sector to surge.

Then reality set in. All the deal proved is that it’s good to be a billionaire at a time when major financial institutions are desperate for cash infusions. The deal isn’t quite as profitable as the one Buffet orchestrated with Goldman Sachs, but the profits will buy a lot of Dairy Queen.

BofA hopes Buffet’s interest might raise confidence and help turn the company’s stock around.

I’m not convinced.

First, former BofA CEO Ken Lewis seemed slightly confused about the popular Wall Street adage “buy low and sell high.” Lewis overpaid for Merrill Lynch, and followed that deal by overpaying for Countrywide.

Now, Brian Moynihan is following his predecessor’s lead by overpaying for capital when the world is awash in cheap cash.

Last is the event for which Wall Street waited all week: Ben coming down from the Jackson Hole Mountain. The markets had rallied in expectation of further Fed actions. That turned out to be a case of a spoiled child still believing he’d get a BMW for his birthday after Daddy was jailed for running a Ponzi scheme. Not that the Fed is running a Ponzi scheme. Well, wait; let me think about that.

The most meaningful outcome of Ben Bernanke’s speech is that the Fed will extend its September meeting from one to two days. Translation: They don’t know what to do, and they want more time to think about it.

As I’ve said, the Fed has been relegated to shooting Nerf balls. Whatever they do – and they may take further action – will have an increasingly limited impact. As Bernanke suggested, it’s time for Washington to do its job.

Lord help us.

More on Bernanke’s comments next week.

Tony Paradiso, an author, professor, entrepreneur, and radio and TV commentator, can be reached at tparadiso@tds.net.

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