Lefty Nick Shaw will be a key for Nashua South and its tourney hopes. (Telegraph photo by TOM KING

(Editor’s Note: The Telegraph is taking a look in four parts at how the upcoming baseball, softball, boys and girls lacrosse high school state tournaments could shape up, ahead of the pairings being announced. Today: Baseball and softball. Monday: Boys and girls lacrosse.)

There is usually nothing predictable about the NHIAA baseball tournament season, except two things:

Expect the unexpected, and the team with the best/hottest pitching usually wins.

That will be the case again in the next two weeks. Last year, the area had one state champion as Hollis Brookline captured the Division II title with a hot pitcher in Padge Mac Sean plus good hitting.

Can it happen again in any of the divisions? Possibly. Campbell is having a great year in Division III, and the Cavs are also still among the best in Division II. There are uphill climbs everywhere else, but let’s take a look:

DIVISION I

Locally, it will be just the three city teams competing, but unfortunately all will be on the road and Holman will be dark on the night of the first round, Thursday. Nashua South (11-8) suddenly emerged as the team with the best chance but it fell short, and barring huge upsets will have to wait until the June 7 semis to play at Holman, if they get that far. It’s likely first round opponent on the road would be Bedford, but that’s not official.

The Panthers can hit, with Dean Adams, Devin Sawyer, etc., and can also pitch, they’ve spent the season trying to develop pitching behind ace Nick Shaw.

Bishop Guertin (11-9) looked like it would roll to a favorable spot when it blanked South 9-0 to go to 10-5 two weeks ago, but a four-game losing streak stopped those thoughts. Still, Guertin has the pitching depth, but, as coach Scott Painter said, “You’ve got to throw strikes.”

Guertin suffered one-one losses to powers Londonderry and Portsmouth, and beat another contender, Winnacunnet.

“I think the top 12 teams all have one or two guys that can beat you,” Painter said, his team featuring arms such as Sam Franco and A.J. Holmes, plus a solid shortstop/leadoff hitter in senior Luke Anderson.

Nashua North coach Zach Harris, his team 9-9, agrees. His team got a big boost this month with the full time return of shortstop Derek Finlay, but it’s pitching that will dictate things.

“I see a lot of teams with really good number ones,” said Harris, who has his own good top starter in Elias Bourque. “If you’re fortunate enough to get through that first game (when most No. 1’s pitch), I think it’s anybody’s game in that second round. Everybody’s showed it at this point. It shows that anybody’s vulnerable.”

The Lancers, defending champion Pinkerton, Concord, Goffstown, Exeter, they all have been above the locals all year. We’ll see if that holds true.

THE PICK: We’ll go with a darkhorse, Concord. The Tide can hit.

DIVISION II

Can the 13-3, likely No. 2 Cavs repeat? They have good pitching in Jack Lager, Charles Hale and Zak Lussier, and Alex Razzaboni has led a very potent offense. While Hanover has been a top team all year (one loss), it would be a suprise if the Cavs, aren’t a semifinal team. They’ll get a first round bye and need just one home quarterfinal win to get there. Ironically, they might see last year’s runnerup, St. Thomas of Dover, there as well.

Watch out for Souhegan, possibly at No. 5 at 11-6, The Sabers, paced by a good pitcher-hitter in Brayden Hickman (6-2 on the year at last look) and another arm in Hayden Goerlich (4-3). Nolan Colby is considered a top shortstop. But if the Sabers get the Brayden-Hayden show going, they could be a tough out. They blitzed past top seeded, 14-2 Hanover, 11-1, just the other day. Wow.

Milford (7-9), it looked, unfortunately, could be on the outside looking in. Two losses to Pelham did not help in terms of a potential tiebreaker for the final spot, but that’s not certain. We’ll just have to wait and see.

THE PICK: HB. Why not?

DIVISION III

The Cougars are back. They haven’t been a force in Division III since 2017, but head coach James Marron has brought some stability to the program and they finished the season a robust 14-2, definitely a top four finish and possibly as high as No. 2. The Cougars have good arms in Luke Delia and Logan Daigle, and hitting up and down the lineup paced by Braydon White and Jack Kidwell. They opened some eyes by handing Bishop Brady its first (and as of this writing, its only) loss a couple of weeks ago. It’s tough in this division since the schedules aren’t uniform, and Campbell didn’t play Monadnock, but don’t be surprised if this team is a finalist. Monadnock, meanwhile, had scored double figures in 12 of its first 15 games.

THE PICK: Monadnock. But it’s not rock solid.

DIVISON IV

Wilton-Lyndeborough, unfortunately, is in a vast rebuild (2-13 at last look) from last year’s team that lost a heartbreaker in the semis.

Newsletter