H.S. fans might get their wish

The enrollment numbers are in and tentative division breakdowns for all sports have been distributed to the athletic directors at all New Hampshire Interscholastic Athletic Association schools.

There was a Monday deadline for all schools to get back to the NHIAA with their individual wish lists of sports in which they would like to move up or down.

Now the real fun begins, and the biggest spotlight will be on a meeting of the football committee on Wednesday. It may be weeks before we officially find out what happens, but that won’t stop us from speculating and telling you what we already now.

Is there a possibility we might be looking at a bulked up Division I that will include the current teams plus Bishop Guertin and Exeter, but minus Manchester West? You bet.

Yes, you can still have your power rating and polls to speculate where schools like Plymouth, Souhegan and Timberlane Regional stack up against the best. But the majority of top teams will be slugging it out, week after week, in what promises to be a high-competition Division I.

According to sources, Exeter was already placed in Division I by virtue of the new enrollment figures. The Blue Hawks would have to petition to stay down in Division II, and it seems highly unlikely they would.

The real question is Bishop Guertin, which the numbers placed as the smallest school (882 students) in Division III. Historically the Cardinals have petition up to Division II.

On Monday morning, athletic director and head football coach Tony Johnson wouldn’t divulge where he asked to be placed in football, but acknowledged there’s mounting pressure on the Cardinals to go all the way up.

Johnson, whose team has won four of the last five Division II titles and appears headed for the finals again – the Cardinals take an unbeaten record into Saturday’s showdown with Exeter – feels the peer pressure but says he won’t let it jeopardize the long-term effects on his program.

“Right now we’re in a severe economic downturn and that has a direct effect on private and parochial school enrollments,’’ Johnson said.

So far, Bishop Guertin is still at full enrollment. In fact, the school still accept less than half the students who apply. But enrollments are down, some dramatically, at the state’s three other parochial schools – Bishop Brady in Concord, Trinity in Manchester and St. Thomas in Dover.

Johnson’s looks back at a similar economic downturn in the late 1980s and early 1990s, when Bishop Guertin struggled in most sports, particularly football. With tuition now over $11,000, he wonders how long it will be before his school is impacted.

“Public schools can look at their feeder system and get a good idea of how competitive they’ll be in future,’’ Johnson said. “With no feeder program, the only thing I can look at is the area economy.’’

Johnson knows he can come up for two years, then go back down in the next two-year cycle, but said he’d like to avoid the “yo-yo’’ effect.

But how much fun would Division II be without Exeter? The best guess here is that BG will move up to a 10-team Division I that will include, next fall, Concord, Exeter, Londonderry, Nashua North, Nashua South, Manchester Memorial, Manchester Central, Salem and Pinkerton Academy.

What will happen below Division I won’t be nearly as interesting. Manchester West, its enrollment depleted by losing Bedford students and Manchester seemingly unwilling to redistrict, is unlikely to drop any lower than Division II. And don’t look for Division III power Souhegan to move up. With their latest enrollment number at 894, they are currently the smallest school in Division III, including division rivals Milford (959) and Hollis

Brookline (903).

And don’t expect to see Plymouth move up either. The Bobcats are a good fit, geographically, in Division IV, and, hey, they have just as much competition there than they had when winning Division III titles year after year.

What might we see in other sports? Hollis

Brookline is apparently ready to take the leap to Division I girls’ soccer. And don’t be surprised if the Cavaliers move all the way up in girls’ lacrosse, where they will likely be joined by Bishop Guertin.

And with a completely new coaching staff in a program that has struggled of late, Souhegan may decide to stay where it was placed in Division II boys lacrosse, rather than petition up as it has traditionally done. The girls program, however, will continue to compete in Division I.

Gary Fitz can be reached at 594-6469 or gfitz@nashuatelegraph.com.