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National columnist Bill Kristol talks 2020 race at Politics and Eggs event

By Kathy Cleveland - Staff Writer | May 24, 2018

GOFFSTOWN – U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont, beat former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the 2016 New Hampshire Democratic primary. New York City entrepreneur Donald Trump, after openly questioning the authenticity of President Barack Obama’s birthplace, became president himself.

These are some examples of how unpredictable presidential politics can be, conservative columnist Bill Kristol told those gathered for a Wednesday breakfast at Saint Anselm College.

Kristol, the founder of the conservative journal “The Weekly Standard,” and an early leader of the #NeverTrump movement, offered those examples of how fast radical changes come to the world of politics.

“Things are much more up in the air than we realize,” the national political commentator said during the latest installment of Politics and Eggs.

The current conventional wisdom is that Trump will be the underdog in 2020 if he runs again, Kristol said, “but I’m not sure that’s the case,” because we have had three eight-year presidencies in the past 24 years.

But “don’t assume all the rules will hold now” because there are too many variable, and voters, especially young voters, “are much more unmoored to traditional parties.”

Trump’s strength among Republicans, however, is overstated, Kristol said, and many of the people in his 85 percent approval ratings are only “semi-onboard,” and by 2020, formidable candidates can come from behind.

“You don’t have to be ‘Never Trump’ to want a less chaotic presidency, and Republicans may want to “pocket our gains” – such the appointment of Neil Gorsuch to the U.S. Supreme Court – and move on to someone else, Kristol suggested.

In political focus groups, people say they hate the current divisiveness, Kristol said. He mentioned a tweet in which Trump referred to the “criminal deep state” regarding the ongoing FBI’s investigation into collusion with Russia.

“People can get pretty tired of that,” Kristol said.

As to likely primary challengers, Kristol suggested U.S. Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Arizona, and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. Trump supporters, he said, will probably not feel the need to support Vice President Mike Pence if Trump decides not to run, said Kristol, who is personally “a little appalled by Pence’s fawning” praise of the president.

“I don’t think he will ever be the Republican nominee,” Kristol said of Pence.

Kristol sprinkled his talk with jokes and anecdotes, but said there is a feeling among young people that “the system is really broken.”

When the Senate Judiciary Committee decided in a bipartisan vote of 14-7 to protect special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation, he said, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell refused to bring it to the floor, “it’s a little astonishing.”

Answering a question about the media’s responsibility for the election, Kristol said most people knew a lot about Trump before the election,” but there could have been more focus on the candidate’s businesses, especially Trump University.

Politics and Eggs began in 1995 as a way to have business leaders meet the major presidential candidates, who speak, take questions and sign the wooden eggs that are table decorations and keepsakes.

Trump and Hillary Clinton were featured speakers in 2016. Other speakers have been Flake, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Florida, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

The series is a joint initiative of The New England Council and The New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm, and the audience is typically made up of people from New England businesses, including BAE Systems, Comcast, Dartmouth Hitchcock, AT&T, Eversource, and various law and financial services firms.

Kathy Cleveland can be reached at 673-3100 or kcleveland@cabinet.com.

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