Expanded gambling not always sure thing
For those who think video slot machines at the racetracks will solve all the state budget problems of the future, you had better think again.
The proposal of Millennium Gaming and other racetracks for video lottery terminals creates a new kind of problem all its own.
As it turns out, VLT gaming appears to meet the definition of a state lottery game. Voters approved more than a decade ago an amendment to the state Constitution which says that all profit from lottery games has to go to education.
For the layman, the essential difference is that at a VLT, all players are competing for one big jackpot. Theoretically at least, two people sitting next to one another playing a slot machine can win the jackpot at the same time.
Gaming Commission Chairman Andrew Lietz has confirmed that he would be asking Attorney General Michael Delaney’s office for a legal opinion on this subject.
Currently, about $400 million from existing state taxes flows into the Education Trust Fund to support state aid to school districts.
Currently, some of the take from state taxes on business, property transfers and cigarettes goes directly to education aid.
If the Legislature legalized betting on VLTs, lawmakers could change those laws and have those dedicated taxes flow back to the Treasury.
Even though this would be at least a partial fix to the problem, it complicates the dance that legislators would have to take to approve expanded gambling.
Would revenue from expanded gambling grow at the same rate as state aid grants to local school districts have over the past decade? Not likely, even after the economy recovers.
For the past three years, legislative supporters of Millennium and other racetrack owners have proposed that their sites have VLTs and not slot machines. The same is true of the 2009 bill from supporters who want to site a destination resort casino next to the Green Meadow Golf Course in Hudson.
Why? The odds of winning are longer, and all things being equal, the profit margin from VLT betting tends to be larger than it is from slot machines.
Meanwhile, the commission is carefully poring over the financial estimates for the gaming plans. There’s strong skepticism that having VLTs at the tracks or at a destination casino would cannibalize the entire market of those who now visit Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun casinos that feature slot machines.
Veteran players migrate to the locales with slots believing their odds of winning the big prize are much better.
The commission this week will hear from experts about the science of addiction, including whether players get more hooked and become chronic addicts playing slots versus VLTs.
The speakers are Dr. Earl Grinols, a Baylor University economics professor, James Browning with Common Cause of Pennsylvania, and Dr. Kevin Harrigan, an expert on gaming machine design.
A step backward?
This was not the kind of news Millennium Gaming needed.
On Thursday, Moody’s Investor Service again downgraded the credit rating of Cannery Casino Resorts, the parent gaming company for the Rockingham Park proposal.
The company’s corporate family rating and probability of default ratings were moved to Caa1, reflecting substantial risk, from B2, or highly speculative.
“Moody’s primary concern is that Cannery will need to seek covenant relief at a time when operating conditions remain challenged,” Moody’s senior credit officer Peggy Holloway wrote in an investor’s note.
The credit rater also questioned the sunny optimism Millennium Gaming has offered about the performance of its Rockingham Park-like, Meadows racino in suburban Pittsburgh.
Cannery’s current debt load matures between 2012 and 2014. The company, which is privately owned, generates nearly $490 million in annual revenue.
Millennium spokesman Rich Killion said the development is a sign of the struggles facing all gaming operations in this recession.
‘’Every industry has been impacted by the slowdown in the economy,’’ Killion said in a statement. ‘’The casino industry in Las Vegas is certainly not immune to that.’’
Last month, Millennium principal Bill Wortman assured the gaming commission that it could secure financing for the racino at Rockingham through its existing bank relationships.
“Millennium’s interest in and commitment to the Rockingham Park has never been stronger,’’ Killion added.
Big-time support
Senior U.S. Sen. Judd Gregg has come out publicly for Republican Senate hopeful Kelly Ayotte.
A letter from Gregg to GOP financial supporters and longtime activists began showing up in mailboxes this weekend.
This is not earth-shattering news.
From the outset, Gregg has made it clear that he thinks Ayotte is more than a suitable replacement to him.
By signing this fundraising letter, however, Gregg is showing he’s willing to do much more than the obligatory to help elect her despite a crowded Republican primary.
Ayotte has to win this race on her own merits, but Gregg remains the most popular member of the state delegation. The only endorsement clearly that would rival this one on the Republican side would be from former U.S. Sen. John E. Sununu.
“It is critical we send a strong, conservative and effective individual to the U.S. Senate in 2011,’’ Gregg wrote. “Fortunately, we have such a candidate in Kelly Ayotte.’’
In the letter, Gregg retells Ayotte’s New Hampshire biography and then makes the case for her to follow him into office.
‘’Further, Kelly is a true, fiscal conservative who will fight to limit spending and debt at the federal level while bringing a strong voice for New Hampshire’s traditional values to Washington,’’ Gregg continued. “She will quickly become a new and highly respected leader in the Republican party and the Senate.’’
Standing out
What remains to be seen is whether Ayotte will try in any way to set herself apart from the national Republican party establishment. There’s an anti-establishment mood in the state and country on both sides of the aisle.
The residual of this gives the rest of the Senate GOP field hope that they are the one who could pull an upset over Ayotte.
She’s done nothing to this point to show to social or fiscal conservatives that she’s willing to buck what Washington wants on any issue of the day.
The Washington Post at week’s end put it this way: “National Republicans believe Ayotte’s early entrance into the race has allowed her to stake out a series of positions that will make it tough for (Former Board of Education Chairman Ovide) Lamontagne to get to her ideological right.”
Remember it was then-Sen. Sununu who promoted himself as an “independent voice’’ because he broke from the party regulars on a few high-profile issues, like the Patriot Act and Real ID.
Failing that, there is an opening for at least one serious challenger to emerge.
Another choice
Lamontagne is hoping he’ll be that alternative.
As written in this space before, the Manchester Republican was under increased pressure to get off the fence and get into this race before many of the volunteers and nearly all the party money was gobbled up.
Initially, Lamontagne was going to decide on the race by the end of the year. The work of his primary rivals and the difficulty for all raising money pushed Lamontagne into the race three weeks before Thanksgiving.
Now, Lamontagne faces essentially a six-week sprint to the end of the year, when the next financial quarter comes to a close.
He’s going to have to raise at least a few hundred thousand to show he’s got a real stake in this game running against Ayotte and two self-financed candidates, Bill Binnie and James Bender.
A look at the past reveals Lamontagne was not a prodigious fundraiser when he became the nominee for governor in 1996. Money didn’t win that primary against then-GOP Congressman Bill Zeliff; the hard work of Lamontagne and conservative activists in a low-turnout primary was what turned the tide.
Lamontagne hit the telephones hard this week to try and build that grass-roots organization he’ll need to seriously compete in this race. He should get his share of those, like with the endorsement of former House Speaker Doug and fellow Stratham state Rep. Stella Scamman at the end of this week.
Meanwhile, Ayotte reported in an e-mail to supporters this week that she attracted 700 new donors to the campaign last month and has amassed a list of 2,500 volunteers.
Palin in New Hampshire
A new book gives a pretty unflattering view of Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin through a New Hampshire lens.
“Sarah from Alaska,’’ authored by Scott Conroy and Shushannah Walshe, devotes four pages to Palin’s all-day campaign visit to the state Oct. 15, 2008.
It focuses on her refusal to appear onstage with former Congressman Jeb Bradley because the two of them disagreed on drilling for oil in Alaska and on abortion rights.
The Bradley snub had been reported at the time, but the book explores to what extent Palin had been going. The authors called it “perhaps, her most tumultuous day of the campaign.’’ A week before the trip, Palin sent an e-mail to senior campaign aides to underline her wish to know more about the local officials she was posing with, state after state.
“Pls let me know who the invited travelers (sic) are before they’re confirmed to travel with me,’’ Palin wrote. “I want to google them myself so I can know my comfort level with an association with politicians whom I’ve never met before they jump on the bus or plane with the VP campaign.’’ When she saw that Bradley had opposed oil drilling in the Alaskan Wildlife Refuge and had a pro-choice voting record in the New Hampshire Legislature, that was apparently the last straw.
“Why is he going to be on stage with me?’’ Palin asked. “He and I don’t agree on anything.’’ Palin was late for the first of three events in Portsmouth, so Bradley was off the stage before Palin arrived for the event.
On the bus ride to events, a vice presidential staffer tried to steer both Bradley and then-Sen. Sununu into a van that traveled separately from the motorcade even though they had been told they would be riding with Palin.
Former state Chairman Steve Duprey stepped in, made a few phone calls and the word came down from John McCain central that, like it or not, Bradley would ride in the bus with Palin and appear on stage with him.
The authors report Bradley didn’t even know about the snub until they showed him evidence of it months later.
“I think it’s important that there are going to be differences of opinion, and we not exclude good Republicans just based on one set of ideas,’’ Bradley said. “And I have a pretty conservative voting record on social issues.’’
This uncomfortable episode was doubly difficult for McCain aides to take, given that their candidate was preparing for the last of three debates with Barack Obama later that evening.
Dems worried?
Was a House committee’s action last week on an assisted suicide bill an answer to worrisome times for Democratic legislative leaders?
All signs pointed to the House Judiciary Committee wanting to hold on to the proposal of state Rep. Chuck Weed, D-Keene.
But Tuesday, the panel voted 13-3 to recommend killing the bill outright.
It sure looks like this is one of those hot-button social issues that Democrats in charge don’t want lying around in advance of the 2010 elections.
Sick time stalled
The bill to mandate that businesses offer sick leave appears to be on the slow road to oblivion.
Not a single state in the country has it, although legislation was proposed in 14 different states, including New Hampshire, this past year.
State Rep. John Knowles, D-Hudson, has pared the legislation down considerably. The number of days each year has been sliced from five to three, and businesses that offer paid leave days for illness or something else would get credit under the proposal.
The amended bill also reduces the scope of reasons that an employee can have for getting paid sick leave.
But Gov. John Lynch has already come out against the plan. The measure is seen as a big-time shot at the hospitality industry that is a significant job producer, albeit with many of those jobs being relatively low-paying.
The move to kill this bill outright has become a rallying cry for all kinds of business groups across the state.
Last week’s meeting of the House Labor, Rehabilitative and Industrial Services Committee drew 14 – count them – lobbyists in opposition.
The panel returned the bill to its subcommittee for more work but this appears, to put it politely, to be a lost cause.
Gatsas’ replacement
Let the race for the State Senate District 16 seat begin with the resignation of Manchester Mayor-elect Ted Gatsas.
Whether prodded to or not, Gatsas did the noble thing in making an early exit from the Senate. This means the primary will be in early January, perhaps Jan. 12, with the general election a month later.
Who will vote? Who knows, and if there’s a primary on both sides of the ballot, this should shrink the voter pool even smaller, and make the outcome very difficult to predict.
State Rep. Jeff Goley, D-Manchester, jumped in with both feet, hoping his early entry will convince other Democrats to step aside.
There will be a spirited Republican primary between two Hooksett Republicans, state Rep. David Boutin and former House Chief of Staff Terry Pfaff.
It’s been an oh-so-long time since a Democrat held the seat, although they have come close with Manchester lawyer Bob Backus twice giving Gatsas all he could handle and Bow Rep. Steve DeStefano nearly winning the seat outright a decade ago.
As we know with the rest of the state, however, Republicans do not hold the same level of support they once had.
Consider this. Following the 2002 landslide election win for Republicans, the GOP in this district had a 61 percent to 39 percent edge in party registration, 12,969 to 8,203.
A short six years later, following the election of Obama, the Democrats had the upper hand with a 53 percent to 47 percent split, 14,690 for Democrats to 13,046 Republicans.
Independents usually play a small role in these special elections, and in this district (13,246), they are not the largest voting bloc.
The big swing has been in the towns. Six years ago, Republicans outnumbered Democrats by at least 2-1 in Bow, Candia, Dunbarton and Hooksett.
Now, Democrats are the bigger voting group in all four communities.
Based on today’s party registration, Manchester makes up nearly 49 percent of the vote compared to the towns (51 percent). Turnout will obviously be key and if it’s larger in the city, having a candidate with Manchester connections could help – a lot. Both Boutin and Pfaff have Manchester ties. Like Goley, Pfaff has been a Manchester firefighter. Boutin lived in the city for years and served on its planning board.
The Democrats will talk down their prospects of winning, but it will be very competitive.
Seeing both sides
The State Employees Association continued to reveal a bipartisan streak with its endorsement of Republican congressional candidate Robert Giuda of Warren.
The endorsement is only for the GOP primary in the 2nd Congressional District but Giuda will take it.
A social and fiscal conservative, Giuda is also a former union member and as a United Airlines pilot was a casualty of heavy-handed management.
In the Legislature, he’s also broken from most of his party and opposed the Legislature to Right to Work bills, another top union priority.
The SEA also this week endorsed former Kingston Republican State Rep. Kenneth Weyler in the Rockingham District 8 House special election. Weyler faces George Melvin of Plaistow in the primary; former Kingston fire Chief Norman Hurley is the only Democratic candidate.
There’s also a crowded, Democratic primary for the open House seat in Sullivan County’s 2nd District.
Republican Tony Maiola resigned that seat due to ill health.
Three candidates have come forward: ex-state Reps. Peter Franklin of Newport and Arthur Jillette of Goshen as well as A. John LaRock of Newport.
Franklin and Jillette got swept out of office in 2008.
Steve Cunningham of Croydon is the only Republican candidate.
Both House primaries are Dec. 8 with the general elections Jan. 12.
Something to celebrate
Here’s a happy 50th birthday to Democratic Party Chairman Raymond Buckley.
A few hundred of Buckley’s closest friends held a surprise party for Buckley at the Puritan Backroom on Saturday.
Buckley can and should celebrate the election of Robert Walsh as the new Hillsborough County attorney. Walsh’s second-ballot victory returned this important county post to the Democrats. Republican Marguerite Wageling had a complete hold on that job before Lynch named her to the Superior Court bench last month.
The party welcomes another paid staffer to its ranks, John Barriere, who becomes deputy political director to Ryan Mahoney. Barriere most recently ran the Manchester municipal campaigns, where Democrats won 13 of 15 seats on the Board of Aldermen and 12 of 15 on the school board.
Swinging hard
Democratic leaders pounced this week on Ayotte for supporting the Republican playbook on health care reform.
The strategy includes opposing health care mandates.
New Hampshire is one of about 20 states in the U.S. that places extensive mandates on insurers who write business in the small-business market.
“Kelly Ayotte’s plan will help insurance companies continue to deny care to New Hampshire families while eliminating New Hampshire protections that require insurance companies to cover breast cancer treatment, prenatal care, and diabetes coverage,’’ said Mark Bergman, communications director for Democratic Senate hopeful Paul Hodes.
‘’Her plan won’t cover pre-existing conditions and would allow health care costs to continue to spiral out of control for New Hampshire small businesses. Kelly Ayotte’s health care plan is written by the insurance companies and for the insurance companies.”
After months of taking hits on their health care plan, Hodes and Democratic leaders are hitting back hard.
Still a win
As expected, the recount of ballots in a special election in Concord didn’t change the outcome with surprise winner and Republican Lynne Blankenbeker holding a 17-vote victory over Republican-turned-Democratic nominee Jim MacKay.
On Election Day, MacKay had lost by 20 votes.
All voting in the four-ward Concord district were by voting machines. This made odds of any flip in that election much longer.
Kevin Landrigan can be reached at 321-7040 or klandrigan@nashuatelegraph.com.
